EU to tighten screws on TPSA and craft customer-friendly market

Most telecomtelecommunication: telekomunikacja operatorsoperatorzy (tutaj: telefonii) - both fixed(tutaj) stacjonarny and mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami - enjoy a comfortable place in the national economy.

Not only do they keep the public connected, but their usually pricypricy, pricey: kosztowny advertising campaigns make them the darlings of the adogłoszenie, reklama agencies, while their high turnover(tutaj) obrót and complicated shareholderakcjonariusz, udziałowiec structures make them the favorites of both foreign and local investors.

Given these tributes, plus EU membership, the market expects an increasingly competitivekonkurencyjny near future in which prices will fall across the board as brandingbrand: marka comes to the forefrontczołowa pozycja. Furthermore, a handful of key acquisitionsacquisition: nabycie on the part of local players, such as Netia, and foreigners, including Vodafone and Deutsche Telekom, are expected.

Much of this has been on the cards for sometime now. But probably the most anticipatedoczekiwany, wyczekiwany action is the inevitablenieunikniony fall in prices that has occurred among mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami operatorsoperatorzy (tutaj: telefonii), especially in the neighboring Czech Republic and Hungary, but which has been slow going in Poland.

"First, you're going to have the tariffs decreasing," says Bob Creamer, analyst as CDM Pekao.

The drop in rates will be most prominentwidoczny on the mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami market, as operatorsoperatorzy (tutaj: telefonii) have already begun to offer unexpectedly low prices. And a competitivekonkurencyjny market in which the three operatorsoperatorzy (tutaj: telefonii) have almost equivalentrównoważny, równorzędny market shares promises that pricing pressure will continue.

Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa, the operator of the Era network, recently launched Heyah, a prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) service aimed at younger, price-sensitive users, while, as Creamer notes, Centertel, the operator of Idea, also offers similar services.

The mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami firms are able to offer their prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) clients lower rates because they are following a trend of selling minutes separate from handsetshandset: aparat, something Czech and Hungarian users have already experienced. Traditionally, operatorsoperatorzy (tutaj: telefonii) subsidizedsubsidize: dotować, subsydiować the high prices of their handsetshandset: aparat with higher tariffs. As mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami markets have maturedto mature: dojrzewać, there has been a decreasing demand for this practice.

"I think this has already started. You see that big red hand?" asks Creamer, pointing to the Heyah marketing strategy that had cartoonish red hands splashed on billboards about Warsaw and other major cities. "Prices must fall."

This factor will also hastento hasten: przyspieszać what many consider to be the inevitablenieunikniony migration from fixed(tutaj) stacjonarny services to mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami. In Hungary and the Czech Republic, this has occurred apaceszybko, migiem; in Poland not so quickly.

Centertel, however, doesn't expect the dynamics of the entire industry to change much.

Jacek Kalinowski, spokesmanrzecznik, says that for Centertel, the immediatetutaj: najbliższa future is business as usual.

Fully acknowledging the prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) price wars in the industry, he notes that Centertel would continue to focus on postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) customers. That client base has been the bread and butterźródło utrzymania of the company's plans, as it boaststo boast: chwalić się just a tick under half of all postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) users as its own.

"Our strategy is to focus specifically on high-end users in the postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) segment," Kalinowski says. "Every customer in the postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) segment uses more services, such as GPRS."

But that doesn't mean the company intends to ignore the prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) segment.

He explains, too, that the average revenuedochód per user (ARPU) for postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) clients is much higher than in the prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) sector. He estimates that Centertel's postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) ARPU stands at zł.100, as compared to a prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) ARPU figure of zł.30. In this light, the company would like to maintain a 50-50 postpaidpłacone na koniec okresu rozliczeniowego (abonament) to prepaidprzedpłata (telefony na kartę, płacone przed wykorzystaniem usługi) ratio.

Most competitors are also hoping that accessionprzystąpienie (do Unii) will finally make the country's regulator accountableodpowiedzialny to the anticompetitiveniekonkurencyjny realities of the market.

Wojciech Mądalski, Netia's chief executive, has been eagerly awaiting EU membership for the very reason that the telecomtelecommunication: telekomunikacja regulator (URTiP) will soon have to answer to Brussels.

Pekao's Creamer points out that, in terms of actual telecomtelecommunication: telekomunikacja regulations, Poland is on a par withna równi z many Western countries. But, "in practice," the watchdogtutaj: ciało nadzorujące falls shortto fall short: rozczarowywać, with the near monopoly of TP SA holding swayto hold sway: dzierżyć władzę over its decisions, leaving alternative providers, such as Netia and Energis, sidelinedna boku, na aucie when they want quick decisions on, for instance, opening up new interconnect points.

"What will change is the increased scrutinyszczegółowe badanie from Brussels," says Mądalski. "This will hopefully make it easier for alternative providers and more difficult for TP SA."

Mądalski, at the head of Netia, also hopes to spearheadto spearhead: przewodzić, stawać na czele another important development in the fixed(tutaj) stacjonarny and mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami segments. Netia has been the prime fixed(tutaj) stacjonarny-line industry consolidator and will continue to be so as it aggressively pursuesto pursue: ścigać KGHM-owned Telefonia Dialog. In a long anticipatedoczekiwany, wyczekiwany deal, Netia bought Elektrim-owned El-Net earlier this year and, in buying Telefonia Dialog, it intends to cobble togetherklecić, robić byle jak a more formidablepotężny, olbrzymi competitor to TP SA.

"Nothing's changing in terms of the EU as regards our consolidation plans," Mądalski notes. Analysts expect the same, as Netia is the most likely buyer for Dialog. All of the other potential buys that have come forward represent private equity housesprywatne fundusze inwestycyjne. And, as Creamer points out, Netia is likely to pay the highest price for the deal. He said that he would expect the company to try to pay for Dialog with shares.

That could pose a slight problem because cash-strappedbez kasy KGHM might demand cash. And private equity housesprywatne fundusze inwestycyjne would certainly be able to buck upto buck up: postarać się o coś for that. A deal is expected to be closed within a year, as KGHM looks eager to sell its fixed(tutaj) stacjonarny-line assetsaktywa.

Mobile operatorsoperatorzy (tutaj: telefonii) are also on the move. In the next year, the market expects Deutsche Telekom, after much litigationspór sądowy, to gain majority control of PTC, the largest mobilekomórkowy, związany z komórkami provider, and re-brandzmienić markę it as T-Mobile, as it has done with its other foreign holdings. The culmination of the deal awaits several decisions by the parties involved, namely Elektrim, Elektrim Telekomunikacja and Vivendi, all of which would benefit from a speedy resolution.

But, Creamer says, the ball is in Deutsche Telekom's court as it will be able to wait a longer time to buy than the owners can wait to sell. And, what's more, the longer the wait, the lower the price, he says.

Also, state-ownedpaństwowy Polkomtel, the operator behind Plus GSM, is on the selling blocks, although no privatization advisor has been selected yet. Polkomtel, which is part owned by KGHM, is almost universally expected to go to Vodafone and TDC. The latter two foreign companies have publicly stated their interest in gaining majority stakesuzyskać wiekszość udziałów in the asset. This would likely lead to Plus GSM being re-branded as Vodafone. Such a move would follow what TDC and Vodafone have done in Denmark, where they call their co-owned operator Vodafone.

All in all, the changing of ownership, lowering of prices and more assertive regulation should lead to a more customer friendly market. And, for customers, it's about time.

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