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The objective in determining costs of new technologies is understanding their factory cost. The factory cost is the direct cost to the OEM of replacing existing production technology A by technology B. It is determined as follows:
Take the price (B) that a supplier charges the OEM for technology B;
Add the engineering cost (C) to the OEM of integrating technology B into a vehicle;
Add the cost (D) of any parts that the OEM makes in-house to implement the technology (labor cost plus factory overhead, plus amortization of required new investment); and
Subtract the cost (A) of technology A similarly calculated.
The factory cost is then B + C + D - A.
The cost estimates have been validated by soliciting feedback from a number of U.S. and Japanese OEMs and suppliers. The costs presented here are a consensus that the numbers are “about right.” The costs of hybrid technologies vary depending on the degree of hybridization, from a low cost in the case of the BAS design, to a very high cost for a series PHEV. It should be noted that the factory cost definition used here includes engineering costs and other part costs, including labor and overhead, for integrating the technology. Using the studies described in Chapter 3, the committee developed a different markup factor for hybrids that relates the definition of factory cost to RPE. Although different studies use different definitions and allocations for items such as profit, vehicle warranty, corporate overhead, transportation, marketing, and dealer costs, the committee concluded that the factory markup for hybrids should be on the order of 1.33 rather than 1.5 for factory cost to RPE. The committee’s justification for using an RPE of 1.33 for hybrids is that the factory cost estimates it developed already include engineering costs and other part costs, including labor and overhead, for integrating the technology. Using a cost multiplier of 1.5 would double count these costs.
As an example of the process, Table 6.2 shows an estimated breakdown of the factory cost of a “mature” Prius—a Prius-type drive that has benefited from the learning curve and has an annual production volume in excess of 100,000 units. The additional components and their estimated OEM costs from the supplier are listed. The committee also lists the cost decrement of items, such as the automatic transmission, that will be removed from the baseline vehicle, a Toyota Corolla in this case. The net cost increase for the mature Prius is then calculated as $3,385.
Next the committee projects costs for 5-year increments to 2025, as shown in Table 6.3. Percentage cost reductions
TABLE 6.2 Factory Cost Estimation Process Applied to a Mature Prius-type Hybrid Vehicle in U.S. Dollars